Friday, May 19, 1972
Decisive Square-Off Seen Near For Hue
By Edward K. Delong
WASHINGON (UPI) --U.S. defense officials believe that four North Vietnamese Army divisions may now be in position to attack the old imperial city of Hue any day. They say it "could be the decisive battle of the campaign."Officials in Washington believe a decisive South Vietnamese victory could break the back of the entire three-prong invasion launched Easter weekend by North Vietnam. A Communist victory, they say, would be a serious military and psychological blow to the South."As to how it will come out, no none knows," one highly placed official said. "I'm optimistic (the South Vietnamese can win), but it could be very bloody, very brutal. I think it will last for days, perhaps weeks, but there will be lulls in there."It could be the decisive battle of this campaign -for either side."Officials also said the ferocity of the North Vietnamese push and the willingness of the Communists to take "terrible" losses came as surprises. They said "we must never underestimate the resolve our enemy shows -he really has determination."Hue lies 55 miles south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates the two Vietnams. The troops and tanks that now threaten it punched across the DMZ, shattered South Vietnam's northern defense line and then -on May 3 -captured the provincial capital of Quang Tri about mid-way between Hue and the DMZ.The other two prongs of the offensive are aimed at a pair of other provincial capitals -Kontum City in the central highlands and An Loc about 60 miles north of Saigon.Since the fall of Quang Tri, major action on all three fronts has died into an uneasy lull punctuated by shellings and short attacks by both sides while the opposing armies regroup into position for the next round, which U.S. officials believe will start at Hue."From the last that we could put together, they were several days away from being in a position to start the attack," one official said. "But that information could have been several days old when we got it."My guess is we are in the period now when they could launch their attack any day," he added."Some people are using the "by-guess-and-by-God" method and saying the 19th (Friday) is Ho Chi Minh's birthday and that's when they will attack. But there's no intelligence to support that."There is no way for the Communists to replace now much of what they lost in the first round of the invasion fighting, particularly tanks and organized army units, U.S. officials say. Hanoi stripped North Vietnam of all but one division of regular army troops, about 15,000 men, to mount the attack.South Vietnamese troops and U.S. planes and naval artillery destroyed at least 250 tanks and other heavy tracked vehicles, intelligence officials say. This was half the number on hand to launch the invasion, and one-third of North Vietnam's total inventory.The Communists also suffered an estimated more than 25,000 killed -the equivalent of almost two divisions. Many of these were regimental headquarters troops and officers, captured prisoners have reported.The northernmost Communist divisions, reinforced by some fresh troops sent down over the DMZ, are poised to the north and the southwest of Hue. Defending the city are the remainder of the South Vietnamese 3rd Division, the crack 1st Division, and elements of South Vietnamese marine and airborne troops.The official said that if the North Vietnamese overrun the defenders of Hue, mauling them badly, "then they will have delivered a very serious blow to South Vietnamese combat capability -and a serious psychological blow, too, because of the symbolic importance of Hue.""On the other hand, should they launch this attack and be thrown back with heavy casualties, it could be the last major attack on Hue for some time -for months at least," he added."Decisive Square-Off Seen Near for Hue", by Edward K. Delong, published in the Pacific Stars and Stripes on Friday, May 19, 1972 and reprinted from European and Pacific Stars and Stripes, a Department of Defense publication copyright, 2002 European and Pacific Stars and Stripes.