Tuesday, May 23, 1972
Hanoi Is Taking Long-Range Look
by George Esper
SAIGON (AP) --The U.S. command is convinced that Hanoi is reassessing its battlefield strategy because of military and diplomatic moves by President Nixon, including his summit meeting in Moscow.It is the consensus of U.S. analysts that the mining of North Vietnamese ports and heavy bombing of rail lines and highways have had the indirect effect of forcing Hanoi to take a second, longer-range look at its offensive in the South.The U.S. Command is reportedly considering the possibility that the lack of overall major initiatives by the North Vietnamese on the battlefield in the last three weeks may be due in part to Hanoi's taking stock of its remaining assets before deciding on its next step.There have been several North Vietnamese attacks on the southern, central and northern fronts of South Vietnam during the last three weeks, but none has been considered a major effort, similar to multidivisional assaults that captured Quang Tri Province May 1.Still, U.S. officials are not prepared to say this is the direct result of the air and naval campaign against North Vietnam or that large-scale assaults won"t be resumed."It is too early to see any direct evidence of any North Vietnamese operation on the battlefield being curtailed simply because of the blockade (by mines)," says one official."We are convinced Hanoi is going through a period of reassessment, looking around, counting supplies, trying to make a judgment on what to do.The best "educated guess" among U.S. officials is that the mining of North Vietnam"s Harbors and air and naval attacks against its railroads and highways will reduce its capabilities to sustain the offensive from nine months to four months.With the offensive already two months old, the best estimate by officials is that North Vietnam's supply problem could become critical in July."The consensus," says one official, "is that by sometime in July the enemy will pretty well have used up his reserve supplies."Already, officials estimate, nearly 400 North Vietnamese tanks have been destroyed out of an initial force of 500.It is the belief of some U.S. authorities that Hanoi is faced with the crucial decision of whether to press ahead with its offensive now and use up large quantities of supplies or back off and try to hold captured territory for political leverage."A third alternative," says one official, "is that they could go back, hoping we will turn off the embargo, just wait another year or so and start all over. They are very patient."Officials say no ships have entered or left North Vietnamese ports since they were mined May 9, and that North Vietnam's internal supply system and pipeline has been wrecked by air and naval strikes.President Nixon said in a nationwide address May 8 that the North Vietnamese ports would remain mined and air strikes would continue against rail lines and highways until all American prisoners of war are returned and there is an internationally supervised cease-fire throughout Indochina."Hanoi Is Taking Long-Range Look", by George Esper, published in the Pacific Stars and Stripes Tuesday, May 23, 1972 and reprinted from European and Pacific Stars and Stripes, a Department of Defense publication copyright, 2002 European and Pacific Stars and Stripes.